The big game is finally here and NFL fans could not ask for anything better than a rematch between New England and New York. While both teams used the media day to stifle all the hyperbole about their last meeting at Super Bowl XLII, everyone knows the truth. Both teams care about winning this game no matter what they say otherwise.
Nothing has reflected this more than the Super Bowl XLVI betting line itself. Back in 2008, the book makers edged the line at a hefty -14.0 for Belichik’s undefeated squad, which saw plenty of sportsbooks hemorrhage money faster than a Katherine Heigl movie. The line on that game dropped down dramatically because of the hordes of bettors siding with the dog, making the live game line -12.0 for New England. Of course, the sportsbooks lost out big time in that game.
This year, the line opened at -3.0 for the Patriots and (pun intended) it’s pretty much stayed pat since then. Most expect that line to come down closer to the Giants by game time, but for the most part the action has steadily come in on both sides. For those that understand betting lines, this is exactly what the oddsmakers want. In 2008, they were blindsided by underdog bets. This year, it’s balanced.
You can say that this is a good thing because everyone likes an honest line, but that makes the mega matchup between the Giants and the Patriots is even harder to call with a line like that. What does history tell us?
Super Bowl Betting By the Numbers
To reiterate how important it is that the Patriots are favored, all you have to do is break down the simple numbers. Trust me, I can barely put a sentence together let alone spell “algorithm”. The stuff below is just easy math.
Thirty-two teams that have been favored in the Super Bowl have gone on to win the past 45 games. That’s 71.1 percent. Pretty good odds there, no matter what you think about the matchup (which I’ll get to later in another piece).
The odds get even juicer if you want to take the Patriots because of those 32 teams, 24 have covered the spread as favorites in the Super Bowl. For those of you still without a calculator (and because I’m being paid to do the math for you), that’s a whopping 75 percent. Even better odds for betting New England.
If you look at the line when it is that shady and frustrating +/- 3.0, things get a little dicey, which might suggest you take the Giants. When the Super Bowl line is +/- 3.0 for either team, the underdog is 3-2 ATS. That’s not the most convincing winning percentage, nor is it a good enough sampling size to really hedge on.
Even worse, since 2000 the underdog has only won the Super Bowl 30 percent of the time. That would be the Bucs, Patriots (2002), Giants and Saints. I’d say those are terrible odds for the Giants but since they’re one of the teams that’s proven how good they are in the Super Bowl as dogs, I’d be less inclined to worry.
Overall the favorite has been a better play in the Super Bowl especially with tight odds. When it comes to single-digit odds in the Super Bowl, the favorite has gone 25-6 ATS in 31 games. Again, since the Patriots are inexplicably favored in this game, the odds as favorites are heavily on their side.
Let’s Talk About That 54.0 Point Total, Shall We?
As for the TOTAL, let’s just say that you should probably be betting the UNDER. The Giants averaged 27.0 points per game during the post season, which is up from their 24.6 points per game during the regular season. This team is not only peaking, they also boast weapons at every conceivable skill position including quarterback. Scary.
On the flip side, the Patriots averaged 34.0 points per game in their only two playoff games, which included blowing Denver out of Gillette Stadium. During the regular season they put up 32.1 points per game. They’ve pretty much been putting up points all year long.
What should you take from that bit of info? Not much. These teams are the best in the NFL right now and a big reason is because of offense. Even though Brady has less weapons, he’s still the greatest quarterback that this generation has ever produced and that’s saying something considering the level of competition he’s endured.
However, statistically the OVER has hit 21 out of 44 times (original Super Bowl did not have a total), which is just 48 percent. Even more intriguing is that the average TOTAL in the Super Bowl is just 41.7.
So what about games with hyper inflated TOTALS? Well the Super Bowl has had a TOTAL of 50+ points eight times in the past, and the UNDER has held five times. The only time that games with 50+ point totals have actually hit the mark in the OVER is when they’re blowouts. That’s the 1985 Niners who shellacked the Dolpins 38-16, the 1995 Niners who trounced the Chargers 49-26 and the Elway led Broncos running roughshod over the Falcons.
Just because we’re expecting truck loads of points doesn’t mean that both Coughlin and Belichik will unleash the dogs of hell on the field. Most teams play it tight to the chest, especially early, and you don’t want to be caught chasing a ballooned OVER. The UNDER is history’s play when it comes to the TOTAL, especially at 54.0 points.
The Public Betting Factor
As a common perception, gamblers like to believe that there’s a massive herd of idiots who roam around the betting pastures and mess up the line. The easiest game to point to is the Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl from 2009 where Pittsburgh was favored a preposterous -7.0 against Kurt Warner. The Steelers barely scratched out a 27-23 win, but the line was -7.0 to accommodate the massive public bet on the Steelers.
So the question here is pretty simple: Is New England that much more of a public team than New York?
I mean, we’re talking about the largest city in the country here. Sure, there are plenty of people who hopped on the Brady Bandwagon back in 2001 and stayed there, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that a lot of those pink hat wearing Massholes are actually laying money down.
The inside community of gamblers love to pretend that they’re smarter than the average bear, and not because it makes them feel good or because they’re elitist. They call themselves “degenerates” for goodness sake. But it allows them to account for certain market inflations. Are they for real?
Yes…just not in this game.
The New York Giants have a feverish backing and as much as people like to think that the Patriots are getting the nod as favorites because of their public team status, that’s simply not the case. Back in 2008 it was a matter of the Patriots being a superior team plus having massive public support in betting circles. This year they’re going up against a Giants team that is not only better, but also has a host of believers in tow.
Prop Bets Galore!
As I wrote last week, if you’re not prop-betting on the Super Bowl, then you’re just not gambling properly.
Everyone’s favorite prop bet is still a toss-up. That’s right, I’m punning you right in to the coin toss prop bet. Tails has a slight edge landing 23 out of 45 games so far, and percentage wise that doesn’t get any tighter because that’s a slim 51 percent winning percentage.
But wait! There’s more! For those of you that love watching roulette results, heads has landed three times in a row. It’s bound to come up tails, right? Tails is due!
As for my favorite money maker, I prefer to go with who will score the first points of the game. I went back and checked the last ten years of Super Bowls and here’s what I found: Wide-receivers opened scoring twice, and two others were by tight-end L.J. Smith and kick returner Devin Hester.
The other six opening points were scored by…a kicker! Right now you can get awesome odds on Lawrence Tynes having something to celebrate first at +300, or Gostkowski netting you a +350 on a field goal. Nobody likes kickers, especially Hank Azaria. But if you’re betting on the first score of the game, they’re your best play. C’mon. Six times out of ten! Everyone needs a kicker!
The Gatorade color bet is a complete wash (man I just can’t stop with the puns). Clear/water is one of the favorites at +160 along with yellow at the same odds. I don’t know. I never get this right. I’m sticking with a flier on water getting dumped even though it’ll probably be blue (the color predominantly shared by both teams) which is the long shot at +1200.
I’m moving on from this stupid bet before it reminds me how much money I’ve lost on Super Bowl prop bets. I’ve more than made up for that with fun times and betting on kickers.
History’s Lesson
Patriots and Giants is as good a matchup as you can get. There’s the drama of Bill and Tom chasing Bill and Joe for rings. There’s Peyton Manning and the decimated Colts watching as Peyton’s younger brother and biggest rival go toe-to-toe. It’s a repeat of the biggest upset in Super Bowl history.
If history has taught us anything, it’s that you can’t always expect the expected in the Super Bowl. New England knows this. New York takes nothing for granted. After the butt kicking the sportsbook took the last time these two teams met, even oddsmakers learned their lesson.
History makes dust and ghosts of us all. But in the moment you can be a hero, if you play the numbers right. A tight line is fitting for this game, but the Super Bowl averages and odds lean towards the Patriots even if the matchup doesn’t necessarily do the same. And as unsexy as taking an UNDER is, it’s your best bet along with tabbing a kicker to score the opening points.
How will you play Super Bowl XLVI in the sportsbook? You know the history. Now make your own.
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The San Francisco 49ers were better than expected this past season, going 13-3 and advancing to the NFC Championship Game. Still, that only has them as a second-tier choice on the newly-released odds to win next year’s Super Bowl XLVII.
