Category Archives: NFL Football

The National Football League (NFL) is the highest level of professional American football in the United States. It was formed by eleven teams in 1920 as the American Professional Football Association, with the league changing its name to the National Football League in 1922.

Can Giants Make it Back-to-Back Payouts on Super Bowl Odds?

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The New York Giants weren’t expected to even win the NFC East division this season, never mind the Super Bowl – so it’s not much of a surprise that they’re not at the top of the odds to win Super Bowl XLVII at Bovada.

Find the complete list of the opening odds for Super Bowl XLVII right now at Bovada.

The Giants got strong performances from each of Eli Manning, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Hakeem Nicks on Sunday as they grabbed a 21-17 win over the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl in Indianapolis. That makes two championships now for Manning.

However, if Manning is going to guide his team to a third title next season he’ll have to do it by starting out at just 15/1 on the opening Super Bowl XLVII odds at Bovada.

The Green Bay Packers are the very-early favorites to win next year’s big game at 6/1, followed by the Patriots at 7/1, the Saints at 8/1, and each of the Texans, Eagles, and Steelers at 12/1. The Ravens then sit at 14/1 odds before we find the Giants at 15/1.

New York went just 9-7 straight up during the regular season, but claimed the NFC East title after both the Eagles and the Cowboys turned in disappointing 8-8 campaigns. The Giants were also 8-7-1 against the spread for NFL bettors in 2011.

Manning seems to be hitting his stride as an NFL quarterback, posting a QB Rating of 92.9 this season with 4,933 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions – down from 25 interceptions during the 2010 season. As well, top weapons Nicks and Victor Cruz at wide receiver still have room to grow.

One key piece of business for New York this offseason might be trading defensive lineman Osi Umenyiora; he has one more year left on his current contract, but wants a new deal.

NFL futures are updated right now at Bovada’s sportsbook.

 

Be There For Every Victory

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Packers Head into Next Season as the Super Bowl Favorites

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The Green Bay Packers were upset by the eventual-champion Giants in the second round of the NFL playoffs this season, but with their MVP quarterback on board they’re still listed as the 6/1 favorites on the opening Super Bowl XLVII odds at Bovada.

Find the complete list of the openingodds for Super Bowl XLVII right now at Bovada.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers rolled to the best record in the league this season, losing just once in 16 games while posting an 11-5 mark against the spread. However, that all went out the window in the playoffs when they lost 37-20 at home to the Giants in the Divisional Round.

Rodgers posted a QB Rating of just 78.5 in that defeat, going 26 of 46 for 264 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception – and getting outplayed by Giants counterpart Eli Manning in the process.

Still, Rodgers was named the league’s MVP this year with a QB Rating of 122.5 to go along with 4,643 passing yards, 45 touchdown strikes, and only six interceptions. Rodgers also rushed for 257 yards and three scores on the year.

Green Bay has some work to do this offseason, most notably getting tight end Jermichael Finleysigned to a new contract. Finley had 55 catches for 767 yards and eight touchdowns for the Packers this season, and could be a candidate to get the franchise tag.

Center Scott Wells, running back Ryan Grant, and backup quarterback Matt Flynn are all potential free agents this offseason as well for the Packers, with Wells another of the team’s priorities but Flynn expected to look for work elsewhere as a starting quarterback.

NFL futures are updated right now at Bovada’s sportsbook.

Be There For Every Victory

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Tom Coughlin has no plans to retire, wants third Super Bowl ring

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Less than 12 hours after securing his second Super Bowl title in the past five seasons, coach was up early Monday morning and gave reporters every indication he’s ready to chase his third championship with this group.

“I certainly hope so,” said Coughlin – who at age 65 is the oldest head coach in the NFL – when asked about returning to coach the Giants in 2012. “My intentions are it to be that way. I have some ownership that has to give approval, but I’m looking forward to it.”

As for how he stacks up with future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick, the coach he has bested twice in the Super Bowl, and what his legacy will be when he leaves the game, Coughlin was quick to direct the focus of the spotlight to his team.

“I don’t really think about that stuff, to be honest with you,” Coughlin said. “It’s not about me, and this is what we talk about all the time. We’re about team, we’re not about individuals. We’re about the team and what’s in the best interest of our team, and we feel that all our power is generated from team.”

Tom went on to praise his defense’s effort in limiting the Patriots to 17 points in Super Bowl XLVI while lauding the “mental toughness, resiliency, resolve” of his squad, the first to win fewer than 10 regular-season games but prevail in a Super Bowl.

“We won so many games like this, at the end of the game, the end of the fourth quarter,” Coughlin said. “We talked about finishing all the time and winning the fourth quarter, being the stronger team, making the plays, and it happened again.”

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NFL Betting: Packers Are Opening Favorites to Win 2013 Super Bowl

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The Super Bowl will return to New Orleans next February 3 for the first time since Hurricane Katrina shredded parts of the Louisiana Superdome, home to the Saints. And Bovada’s NFL oddsmakers list the Green Bay Packers as the early 6/1 favorites to win Super Bowl XLVII.

Get all your NFL player props and NFL team props at Bovada’s online sportsbook.

Of course the Pack were preseason favorites this year after winning the franchise’s fourth championship a season ago. Green Bay finished this season with the NFL’s best record at 15-1 but was upset at home in the divisional round by the New York Giants. All of the substantial Packers should be back next season, including reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, although tight endJermichael Finley is a free agent – the team at worst can slap the franchise tag on Finley. Backup QB Matt Flynn, who threw for a franchise-record six TDs in the regular-season finale is likely going to be gone.

The Giants finished off their surprising postseason run by beating the New England Patriots on Sunday night in Indianapolis for that franchises’ fourth Super Bowl title. New York is only the seventh-favorite to win it again next year at 15/1. But all the Giants’ key skill position players are likely back, led by Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning.

No team has repeated since the New England Patriots in 2005 – that was the last Super Bowl win for Tom Brady and Co. They are the second-favorites to win it all next year at 7/1. New England happened to win the last Super Bowl in New Orleans, upsetting the St. Louis Rams 20-17 on Feb. 3, 2002 to kick off the Brady/Bill Belichick dynasty.  New England will have to re-sign WR Wes Welker, who had a crucial drop in Sunday’s loss.

Could the Saints become the first team to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium? New Orleans is an 8/1 third-favorite to win the franchise’s second Super Bowl title. Drew Brees will need to be signed to a new contract this offseason but that’s considered a formality after Brees set the NFL single-season record for passing yards this season.

The longest shots on the board for next season are the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars at 100/1.

It’s all on the line. Get your Super Bowl XLVII odds at Bovada.

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Special Props Results SUPER BOWL XLVI: 2013 SUPER BOWL XLVII ODDS

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SPECIAL PROPS RESULTS SUPER BOWL XLVI

-National Anthem over 1 minute 34 seconds

-Kelly Clarkson wore “Anything else”

-Kelly Clarkson Belly was not showing

-Kelly Clarkson did not forget or omit a word

-Madonna’s Hair was blonde

-Madonna did wear fishnets

-Madonna did wear a hat

-Madonna did not wear an NFL Shirt or Jersey

-Peyton Manning was shown on TV under 3.5 times

-Giselle Bundchen was shown on TV over 0.5 times

-Andrew Luck was not mentioned at all

-Jim Irsay was not mentioned at all

-David Tyree’s catch was not shown

-Mitt Romney was not shown

-Robert Kraft was shown over 3.5 times

-Tom Brady’s son was not shown at all so all wagers were refunded

-Gatorade shower was purple. Purple was not an option so all wagers were refunded

-MVP did not thank anyone

2013 SUPER BOWL XLVII ODDS

Green Bay Packers 6/1

New England Patriots 7/1

New Orleans Saints 8/1

Philadelphia Eagles 12/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 12/1

Houston Texans 12/1

Baltimore Ravens 14/1

New York Giants 15/1

San Diego Chargers 16/1

New York Jets 16/1

San Francisco 49ers 18/1

Dallas Cowboys 18/1

Detroit Lions 18/1

Atlanta Falcons 22/1

Chicago Bears 30/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1

Miami Dolphins 35/1

Cincinnati Bengals 40/1

Indianapolis Colts 50/1

Tennessee Titans 40/1

Oakland Raiders 50/1

Carolina Panthers 50/1

Denver Broncos 50/1

Kansas City Chiefs 50/1

Seattle Seahawks 60/1

Buffalo Bills 60/1

Washington Redskins 60/1

Minnesota Vikings 75/1

St. Louis Rams 75/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75/1

Cleveland Browns 100/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 100/1

 

What team will Peyton Manning be a member of for game 1 of the 2013 Regular

Season?

Arizona Cardinals 2/1

Washington Redskins 5/2

Miami Dolphins 3/1

New York Jets 7/2

Indianapolis Colts 7/1

 

“With Peyton Manning’s situation it has made setting next year’s Super Bowl Odds very difficult and a reason you will see teams like Arizona and Miami at lower odds than what they would be in case Manning signs there. As for the Colts, even though there is a slim chance he stays they are at 50-1 but if he does leave will shoot up to around 100-1 and if stays would drop down to around 15-1, just goes to show the importance of a guy like Peyton.”

-Kevin Bradley

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Giants Upset Patriots Again; Win Super Bowl 21-17

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Once again the New York Giants were underdogs, and once again they beat the odds to take Super Bowl XLVI.

The game was another nail biter, but for four quarters the Giants defensive line held off the New England Patriots, covering as 3-point underdogs and going UNDER the 53-point total with the 21-17 win.

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Check the Bovada Sportsbook for NFL Futures soon!

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“It’s been a wild game, a wild season,” Giants quarterback Eli Manning said. “This isn’t about one person. It’s about one team, a team coming together.”

Late in the contest, it appeared as if Patriots coach Bill Belichick had pulled another “Belichick” move by allowing Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw to score late — giving Tom Brady 59 seconds to orchestrate a game-winning drive.

However, like they’ve done all game, the Giants D-line held the Pats offense at bay; Brady could only settle for a hail-mary pass with five seconds remaining that fell through the hands of tight endRob Grownkowski.

“Great toughness, great faith, and great plays by a number of guys today,” Manning said, avoiding any questions about winning it all in his brother Peyton’s house. “It just feels good to win a Super Bowl, it doesn’t matter where you are.”

Manning was named Super Bowl MVP, his second since entering the NFL. Let the Manning versus Manning speculation begin.

Betting Analysis: As for 2013 NFL Futures don’t expect the Giants to be favorites to win the 2013 Super Bowl. The Giants are talented, but on offense they are still too inconsistent during the regular season to bet the house on them early.

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Check the Bovada Sportsbook for all your betting needs!

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Bet Super Bowl Online: Taking A Look At The Offenses For Super Bowl XLVI

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Online betting players have been treated to one of the best offensive seasons in the history of the league, but only two will take the field in Indianapolis on Sunday. Here is a look at how the offenses of the New England Patriots and New York Giants line up.

Quarterbacks

Chances are, you’ll have Tom Brady over Eli Manning in your all-time pantheon of quarterbacks, but Manning has a huge chance to cut into Brady’s “lead” and he could step out of brother Peyton’s shadow (well, not totally) with another Super Bowl win. You could argue that Manning has played better than Brady in the postseason as he has been solid in wins over Atlanta, Green Bay and San Francisco, outplaying Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith. Brady was very good against Denver, but regressed against Baltimore, and he had the luxury of playing both of his games at home, while Manning was on the road for his last two games.

Quarterback play is usually a major factor in deciding a Super Bowl winner, although they’ll need help from the rest of the offense. This is much closer than anyone would have expected, and the slight edge probably goes to Brady….but you can make a very good argument for Manning, who could win the Super Bowl at the house that his brother built.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Giants obviously have the edge at receiver with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, who would probably be the No.1 receiver in New England. The Patriots trot out Wes Welker and Deion Branch, but those two are perfect for the New England system, but regardless, they don’t need to be the stars of the system as tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez present matchup problems all over the field. The Patriots have even taken to lining up Hernandez at running back to make up for their backfield issues, but he is also a massive threat in the passing game and may be even more important as Gronkowski’s high-ankle sprain will be a talking point this week.

The Giants aren’t slouches at tight end as well with Jake Ballard, but he is battling an ailing knee and could be used more as a decoy. This is a draw as both teams have the personnel for what they like to do, so there is really no right answer as to who has the edge. The Giants like big plays, while the Patriots like to check-down your defense to death. It’ll be on the opposing defenses to find ways to control them.

Running Backs

Based on potential, most NFL betting players would believe that the Giants have the edge and with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs in the backfield, they should have a big advantage. However, the duo hasn’t performed that well all season and while they have come through at points over the last six weeks, they were shut down in San Francisco (to be fair, the 49ers had the No.1 run defense in the league) and it caused Manning to throw 58 times, taking a number of big hits in the process. The Patriots have a committee coming out of the backfield, led by BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but you could also get Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead and even Hernandez running the ball. Both teams really only run the ball to get the play-action game going.

If we had to wager on a 100-yard rusher for this game, it would probably be either of the Giants’ running backs, but the Patriots just aim to move the chains and don’t depend on it like New York does. The slight edge goes to the Giants because of what they can be, but the advantage isn’t as great as it should be.

Offensive Line

The Giants’ offensive line struggled badly against the 49ers, and they’ll need to be much better in the Super Bowl to open up holes for the running game, which is something that they didn’t really do all season. The Patriots’ passing game is predicated on quick passes and timing, but they’ll have their hands full against the fierce New York front four, which has taken over games over the last six weeks. You can try to focus on New York end Jason Pierre-Paul, but what about the rest of the line? The Patriots got a huge season from end Mark Anderson, who had his first double-digit sack season since his rookie year in Chicago in 2006, and they’ll need him to have a huge game to pressure Manning.

Again, this is a close matchup to watch, and the Giants may use Ballard more in blocking schemes since he is playing hurt, so we’re going to give the edge to the Patriots, and this could be the difference in how you make your sports betting

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Oddsmakers Learning From History: Super Bowl By The Numbers

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The big game is finally here and NFL fans could not ask for anything better than a rematch between New England and New York. While both teams used the media day to stifle all the hyperbole about their last meeting at Super Bowl XLII, everyone knows the truth. Both teams care about winning this game no matter what they say otherwise.

Nothing has reflected this more than the Super Bowl XLVI betting line itself. Back in 2008, the book makers edged the line at a hefty -14.0 for Belichik’s undefeated squad, which saw plenty of sportsbooks hemorrhage money faster than a Katherine Heigl movie. The line on that game dropped down dramatically because of the hordes of bettors siding with the dog, making the live game line -12.0 for New England. Of course, the sportsbooks lost out big time in that game.

This year, the line opened at -3.0 for the Patriots and (pun intended) it’s pretty much stayed pat since then. Most expect that line to come down closer to the Giants by game time, but for the most part the action has steadily come in on both sides. For those that understand betting lines, this is exactly what the oddsmakers want. In 2008, they were blindsided by underdog bets. This year, it’s balanced.

You can say that this is a good thing because everyone likes an honest line, but that makes the mega matchup between the Giants and the Patriots is even harder to call with a line like that. What does history tell us?

Super Bowl Betting By the Numbers

To reiterate how important it is that the Patriots are favored, all you have to do is break down the simple numbers. Trust me, I can barely put a sentence together let alone spell “algorithm”. The stuff below is just easy math.

Thirty-two teams that have been favored in the Super Bowl have gone on to win the past 45 games. That’s 71.1 percent. Pretty good odds there, no matter what you think about the matchup (which I’ll get to later in another piece).

The odds get even juicer if you want to take the Patriots because of those 32 teams, 24 have covered the spread as favorites in the Super Bowl. For those of you still without a calculator (and because I’m being paid to do the math for you), that’s a whopping 75 percent. Even better odds for betting New England.

If you look at the line when it is that shady and frustrating +/- 3.0, things get a little dicey, which might suggest you take the Giants. When the Super Bowl line is +/- 3.0 for either team, the underdog is 3-2 ATS. That’s not the most convincing winning percentage, nor is it a good enough sampling size to really hedge on.

Even worse, since 2000 the underdog has only won the Super Bowl 30 percent of the time. That would be the Bucs, Patriots (2002), Giants and Saints. I’d say those are terrible odds for the Giants but since they’re one of the teams that’s proven how good they are in the Super Bowl as dogs, I’d be less inclined to worry.

Overall the favorite has been a better play in the Super Bowl especially with tight odds. When it comes to single-digit odds in the Super Bowl, the favorite has gone 25-6 ATS in 31 games. Again, since the Patriots are inexplicably favored in this game, the odds as favorites are heavily on their side.

Let’s Talk About That 54.0 Point Total, Shall We?

As for the TOTAL, let’s just say that you should probably be betting the UNDER. The Giants averaged 27.0 points per game during the post season, which is up from their 24.6 points per game during the regular season. This team is not only peaking, they also boast weapons at every conceivable skill position including quarterback. Scary.

On the flip side, the Patriots averaged 34.0 points per game in their only two playoff games, which included blowing Denver out of Gillette Stadium. During the regular season they put up 32.1 points per game. They’ve pretty much been putting up points all year long.

What should you take from that bit of info? Not much. These teams are the best in the NFL right now and a big reason is because of offense. Even though Brady has less weapons, he’s still the greatest quarterback that this generation has ever produced and that’s saying something considering the level of competition he’s endured.

However, statistically the OVER has hit 21 out of 44 times (original Super Bowl did not have a total), which is just 48 percent. Even more intriguing is that the average TOTAL in the Super Bowl is just 41.7.

So what about games with hyper inflated TOTALS? Well the Super Bowl has had a TOTAL of 50+ points eight times in the past, and the UNDER has held five times. The only time that games with 50+ point totals have actually hit the mark in the OVER is when they’re blowouts. That’s the 1985 Niners who shellacked the Dolpins 38-16, the 1995 Niners who trounced the Chargers 49-26 and the Elway led Broncos running roughshod over the Falcons.

Just because we’re expecting truck loads of points doesn’t mean that both Coughlin and Belichik will unleash the dogs of hell on the field. Most teams play it tight to the chest, especially early, and you don’t want to be caught chasing a ballooned OVER. The UNDER is history’s play when it comes to the TOTAL, especially at 54.0 points.

The Public Betting Factor

As a common perception, gamblers like to believe that there’s a massive herd of idiots who roam around the betting pastures and mess up the line. The easiest game to point to is the Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl from 2009 where Pittsburgh was favored a preposterous -7.0 against Kurt Warner. The Steelers barely scratched out a 27-23 win, but the line was -7.0 to accommodate the massive public bet on the Steelers.

So the question here is pretty simple: Is New England that much more of a public team than New York?

I mean, we’re talking about the largest city in the country here. Sure, there are plenty of people who hopped on the Brady Bandwagon back in 2001 and stayed there, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that a lot of those pink hat wearing Massholes are actually laying money down.

The inside community of gamblers love to pretend that they’re smarter than the average bear, and not because it makes them feel good or because they’re elitist. They call themselves “degenerates” for goodness sake. But it allows them to account for certain market inflations. Are they for real?

Yes…just not in this game.

The New York Giants have a feverish backing and as much as people like to think that the Patriots are getting the nod as favorites because of their public team status, that’s simply not the case. Back in 2008 it was a matter of the Patriots being a superior team plus having massive public support in betting circles. This year they’re going up against a Giants team that is not only better, but also has a host of believers in tow.

Prop Bets Galore!

As I wrote last week, if you’re not prop-betting on the Super Bowl, then you’re just not gambling properly.

Everyone’s favorite prop bet is still a toss-up. That’s right, I’m punning you right in to the coin toss prop bet. Tails has a slight edge landing 23 out of 45 games so far, and percentage wise that doesn’t get any tighter because that’s a slim 51 percent winning percentage.

But wait! There’s more! For those of you that love watching roulette results, heads has landed three times in a row. It’s bound to come up tails, right? Tails is due!

As for my favorite money maker, I prefer to go with who will score the first points of the game. I went back and checked the last ten years of Super Bowls and here’s what I found: Wide-receivers opened scoring twice, and two others were by tight-end L.J. Smith and kick returner Devin Hester.

The other six opening points were scored by…a kicker! Right now you can get awesome odds on Lawrence Tynes having something to celebrate first at +300, or Gostkowski netting you a +350 on a field goal. Nobody likes kickers, especially Hank Azaria. But if you’re betting on the first score of the game, they’re your best play. C’mon. Six times out of ten! Everyone needs a kicker!

The Gatorade color bet is a complete wash (man I just can’t stop with the puns). Clear/water is one of the favorites at +160 along with yellow at the same odds. I don’t know. I never get this right. I’m sticking with a flier on water getting dumped even though it’ll probably be blue (the color predominantly shared by both teams) which is the long shot at +1200.

I’m moving on from this stupid bet before it reminds me how much money I’ve lost on Super Bowl prop bets. I’ve more than made up for that with fun times and betting on kickers.

History’s Lesson

Patriots and Giants is as good a matchup as you can get. There’s the drama of Bill and Tom chasing Bill and Joe for rings. There’s Peyton Manning and the decimated Colts watching as Peyton’s younger brother and biggest rival go toe-to-toe. It’s a repeat of the biggest upset in Super Bowl history.

If history has taught us anything, it’s that you can’t always expect the expected in the Super Bowl. New England knows this. New York takes nothing for granted. After the butt kicking the sportsbook took the last time these two teams met, even oddsmakers learned their lesson.

History makes dust and ghosts of us all. But in the moment you can be a hero, if you play the numbers right. A tight line is fitting for this game, but the Super Bowl averages and odds lean towards the Patriots even if the matchup doesn’t necessarily do the same. And as unsexy as taking an UNDER is, it’s your best bet along with tabbing a kicker to score the opening points.

How will you play Super Bowl XLVI in the sportsbook? You know the history. Now make your own.

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Super Bowl Gambling: New England Super Sunday Betting Preview

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New England entered the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.  In fact, at one point, New England was the favorite to take home the silver trophy as the 5 to 2 fave.

Although New England was the favorite to win the whole enchilada, they didn’t exactly pad football handicappers’ bankrolls when it came to betting against the spread this season.  A 13 and 3 record, which New England secured, didn’t translate to ATS covers in the sportsbook.  New England went 9 and 7 ATS overall.  That shouldn’t inspire confidence in those looking to back New England versus New York in this Super Sunday Pro Football Betting Event, but behind every team’s betting record, there’s a story to be told.

 Against the Spread

Before writing off the Patriots, and taking the 3 points on the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, football handicappers need to examine that less than stellar 9 and 7 ATS record.  The record simply isn’t as uninspiring as the number suggests.  Sure, going 13 and 3 straight up, but only 9 and 7 when it comes to the spread may be disappointing, but there’s a glaring reason for it.

When it comes to football betting, no other team had to give up more points this past regular season than the New England Patriots.  If you wanted to back the Pats, you had to lay a ton of points to do it almost each and every week.  The odds makers had a serious bead on the Pats this season and it showed up in the betting lines.

Home Record ATS:  4-4

It almost goes without saying that the New England Patriots were favored in each and every one of their home games.  The least amount of points that New England had to cover was in Week 2 against San Diego when the Patriots stepped onto the field as a – 6.5 point fave versus the Chargers.

New England also faced the largest spread of any NFL team this season in a home game versus the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 4.  Without Peyton Manning, the odds makers assumed that Tom Brady and the Pats would waltz all over the Colts’ ridiculous 26th ranked D and expand the points sucking black hole that was Indy’s 30th ranked total yards offense.  That didn’t happen.  New England didn’t cover the spread in the yearly Patriots vs Indianapolis battle.  Check out all four of the Patriots’ non-covers during the regular season.

Versus Dallas as a -6.5 point favorite in a 20 to 16 victory

Versus the New York Giants as a -9 point favorite in a 20 to 24 loss

Versus Indianapolis as a -20.5 point favorite in a 31 to 24 victory

Versus Miami as a -9 point favorite in a 27 to 24 victory   

A closer look at each one of the ATS losses reveals that the Patriots are probably a better team, at least when it comes to the 3 points that they face this Sunday versus the New York Giants, then the 9 and 7 regular season ATS record might indicate.

New England faced Dallas in Week 6, when they were still the Cowboys and not the Cowpokes.  Dallas sat on a 2 and 2 straight up record and was coming off of a bye.  The Pats had just come off of an emotional 31 to 21 victory over the Jets.  Things were looking up in Big D and New England was trying to get it together to face an NFC team after putting a sock into Rex Ryan’s giant mug.

It’s difficult to come up with a reason for New England’s against the spread loss to the G-Men on Nov. 6.  Not only did Brady and Co. not come up with a good enough game to cover the ridiculous 9 point spread, but Eli and the G-Men beat them straight up 24 to 20.  Mr. Budchen produced his worse QB rating of the season in the game, a 75.4.  Football bettors should put the NYG loss into the experience column.

20.5 points to an NFL team?  That’s insane, ridiculous, just plain stupid/  Even though most football handicappers wouldn’t lay 20.5 points in a dream world where the Colts showed up with only 8-players ala Miami Arizona’s High School squad, New England had the victory ATS in that game until the 4th quarter where the Colts outscored them 21 to zip.

There’s a moment for every NFL team when it comes to beating the spread in every season.  For Miami, that moment occurred on Oct. 30 when they lost to the New York Giants 17 to 20 as a 9 point dog.  The Fins had gone 0-5-1 ATS in their previous 6 games.  The victory against the spread versus the Giants on Oct. 30 led to a 9 and 1 ATS regular season finish for Miami.  Why is this important to note?  Because the Patriots played the Fins on Dec. 24 at home, towards the end of Miami’s awesome covering spread streak.

Away Record ATS:  5-3

New England’s against the spread record on the road during the regular season can be attributed to the fact that the Patriots faced somewhat lower spreads in their away games than they did in their home games.

When it comes to the NFL, odds makers automatically assign -3 points to the home team.  For instance, when the New Orleans Saints took on the horrible Colts in the Superdome on Oct. 23, they went into the game, before the odds makers set any sort of betting line against the spread, as a -3 point favorite.  The line ended up at -13.5 meaning that the odds makers felt that the Saints were 10.5 points better than the Colts at a neutral site.  At home, the Saints were 13.5 points better than Indy.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Patriots’ three road losses against the spread this season.

Versus Buffalo as a -7 point favorite in a 31 to 34 loss

Versus Pittsburgh as a -3 point favorite in a 17 to 25 loss

Versus Washington as a -7.5 point favorite in a 34 to 27 victory

The Buffalo loss occurred in Week 3.  There’s no doubt that this is a legitimate loss both straight up and against the spread for the Patriots, but there are a couple of key things regarding this game that football handicappers should notice.  First, although Pats’ TE Rob Gronkowski had scored a touchdown in New England’s two previous games, the loss to Buffalo was Gronk’s coming out party.  The huge tight-end (and Arizona alum, my alma mater) grabbed 7 passes for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Since TE Aaron Hernandez, who tore it up in Week’s 1 and 2, didn’t have a catch versus Buffalo, it’s obvious that New England was trying something new with Gronk, length downfield instead of just touchdowns, ala Hernandez, and trying something new with Giant Gronk may have caused some hiccups in the offense.

Not only that, but Buffalo’s three-headed monster, that later on turned into a three-headed tortoise, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Stevie Johnson, and RB Fred Jackson, were at the top of their games versus the Pats.  Fitz had thrown 7 touchdowns to only 1 pick going into the matchup.  Johnson had already caught 12 passes and 2 touchdowns, and Jackson had already rushed for 229 yards and 2 TDs.

By the time the Patriots faced the Steelers on Oct. 30, Big Ben had gotten into an awesome groove.  The QB had thrown 9 touchdowns to only 1 pick in his last three starts.  Was there any doubt that he was going to have success against the Patriots’ 31st ranked pass defense?  Ben shredded New England for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns, but Ben also threw a pick in the game and went 36 out of 50 meaning that he missed on 14 passes.  It shows that even though New England’s D is terrible when it comes to defending against the pass, coach Bill Belichick can scheme very, well given time, and if he faces an opponent he is familiar with.

Is there a reason for the non-cover versus the hapless Washington Redskins in Week 14?  Yes.  I put money on this game when the line first opened at New England -7 points, thereby securing a push, instead of putting money on it when the line drifted to 7.5.  This game shouldn’t even be on the loss list in my opinion.

Key Stat Against the Spread – - Because the Patriots had to cover big time numbers to win in the sportsbook, and because the D was horrific for most of the season, yielding an average of 411.1 yards per game, the key stat regarding whether or not the New England Patriots will beat the spread on Sunday rests with QB Tom Brady.

The offense ran through Brady as the Patriots’ averaged 318 out of their 428 total yards per game average through the air.  The Patriots’ ATS records during the regular season along withEl Guapo’s QB ratings are below.  I’ve highlighted what I feel are the key QB ratings.

Week 1:  121.6 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 2:  135.7 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 3:  86.1 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 4:  100.1 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 5:  100.7 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 6:  82.3 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 7:  Bye
Week 8:  101.8 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 9:  75.4 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 10:  118.4 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 11:  119.2 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 12:  134.6 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 13:  114.9 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 14:  107.6 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 15:  117.3 QB rating, Win ATS
Week 16:  85.8 QB rating, Loss ATS
Week 17:  113.7 QB rating, Win ATS

Only three times did a QB rating of 100 or more from Brady not lead to a victory against the spread.  The spread in those games were:  -3 on the road vs Pitt in Week 8, -20.5 vs Indianapolis at home in Week 14, and -7.5 vs Washington on the road in Week 14.  I’ve already explained what happened in Pittsburgh, how the Patriots had the spread covered before the 4th quarter versus Indianapolis, and why the Washington game shouldn’t be in the against the spread loss column.

It’s obvious to this football handicapper that if Mr. Handsome, as my editor Mike calls him, is on his way to a 100 QB rating or higher on Sunday, the New England Patriots will be on their way to a cover against the spread.  In contrast, based on the QB ratings above, if Tommy Boy is on his way to a QB rating of less than 100 against the G-Men in Super Bowl XLVI, then the New England Patriots will not only be on their way to a loss ATS but also to a straight up loss.

Over/Under Total Record:  11-5

An 11 and 5 over the total record makes for a strong stat, but there are caveats.  Don’t go blindly jumping all over…uh, the over…just because of the Patriots total record and their horrific D.

Yes, there is a chance that Eli Manning absolutely punishes the Patriots’ pass defense.  After all, New England’s defensive backfield of Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo, won’t remind anybody of Ty Law, Tyrone Poole, Rodney Harrison, and Eugene Wilson, the Patriots’ Super Bowl XXXVIII championship winning defensive backfield.  But this year’s New England Patriots’ pass defense has already controlled Eli Manning.  In the Giants’ Week 9 victory over the Patriots, Eli went 20 out of 30 for only 250 yards, 2 touchdowns and a pick.  Baby Manning produced a 77.9 QB rating.

Mr. Budchen produced a 75.4 QB rating against the Giants’ excellent defensive backfield of Corey Webster, Aaron Ross, Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle.  The G-Men actually held Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay’s gunslinger, to a 78.5 QB rating on a 26 out of 46 night in the playoffs.  It’s shows that Webster, Ross, Phillips and Rolle might make up, arguably, the best defensive backfield in the NFL.

The over is not a “sure thing” in this Sunday’s Super Bowl, and if anybody tells you that it is, then they haven’t done their homework.

Final Thoughts:  Over/Under Total

The total on the Super Bowl has dropped from a starting line of 55 to 53.  That’s actually the key stat regarding the total in the Super Bowl.  Total betting is different than against the spread bettering because total betting requires the participation of both teams on a big level.

If you’re betting over the total, you’re counting on both defenses to take a backseat to both offenses in a game.  I’m finding that hard to do in the Super Bowl considering what New England’s D did to Eli earlier this season and what the Giants’ D did to Tom Brady earlier this season.  Also, what football bettors isn’t impressed by what the G-Men’s D did to Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan, Rodgers, and San Francisco’s QB Alex Smith in the playoffs?

The fact that the total has dropped from 55 to 53 tells me one thing:  the total is trending towards under.  In order to go against this obvious trend, football handicappers must make a case for both Eli Manning and Tom Brady having extremely hot days on Sunday.  That’s hard to do.

Final Thoughts:  Against the Spread

If you feel that the betting line is fair, and I certainly do since the Patriots are only a -3 point favorite, the team to back against the spread in this game will come down to answering the following questions:

Do you believe that Patriots’ QB Tom Brady will be able to utilize WR Wes Welker and tight-ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Grownkowski?  Also, who will be the 4th target? - – Gronk is walking around without a boot.  That’s good, but is it enough?  Brady has to secure a 100+ QB rating in this game.  That means he will need all three of his best pass catchers, along with a mystery fourth guy (Ochocinco?  Deion Branch?  Who?) suited up and ready to go because the Webster/Ross/Phillips/Rolle Quatrain has been spectacular in the playoffs.

Will Bill Belichick’s game scheming counter the hot hand of Eli Manning? - – Belichick proved, against a hot Ben Roethlisberger in a game the Patriots almost won, that if he knows a QB’s weaknesses, then he can find a way to protect his horrible cornerbacks and safeties.  Also, Belichick gets a healthy Jerrod Mayo for the Super Bowl and Mayo didn’t play the first time these two teams met meaning that Bill can put even more pressure than usual on Baby Manning.  On the flip side, Eli gets Hakeem Nicks, his best wide receiver, to suit up for this game and Nicks sat out the first game between these two.

Whose running game is going to breakout? - – A key for the Giants to winning this game straight up is actually their running game.  They have to keep the ball out of Tommy Boy’s hands and that means getting yards on the ground.  Of course, it also means that one of the keys to the Patriots’ success in this game is stopping the Giants’ rushing attack before putting a beat down on Manning.  Now, if the Patriots can get their rushing attack going, one that averaged 110.2 per game, and Mr. Handsome is on his way to a QB rating of 100+?  It’s game over, as the saying goes, for the Giants.  Patriots’ backers can cha-ching their way to the after hours party.

The biggest piece of advice when it comes to Super Bowl XLVI is this: concentrate on a few key stats, don’t force trends, pay attention to history but only to a point, and don’t, please don’t, bet with your heart.

Good luck with your Super Bowl XLVI wagers this Sunday!

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Super Bowl Betting Prediction: New York Giants and New England Patriots

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N.Y. Giants vs New England
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 5, 2012
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

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THE STORY: Two Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks, a rematch of one of the biggest upsets in the game’s history and fervent fan bases that share much of the same geographic region. Storylines abound for Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVI matchup between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, yet much of the hype has centered on the left foot of a second-year tight end. An injury to New England’s Rob Gronkowski, whose playing status is unclear due to a high ankle sprain, could have the biggest impact on the outcome when the Patriots and Giants clash in the Super Bowl for the second time in five seasons. New York won the previous matchup as a double-digit underdog, spoiling New England’s bid for a perfect 19-0 season with a 17-14 victory in February 2008. The Giants are also the last team to beat the Patriots, who have won 10 straight games since a 24-20 loss to New York in Week 9 that snapped New England’s streak of 20 consecutive regular-season home victories. In both matchups, Giants quarterback Eli Manning – the MVP of Super Bowl XLII – led a last-minute comeback to upstage Patriots QB Tom Brady, a two-time Super Bowl MVP.

TV: NBC, 6:30 p.m. ET. LINE: Patriots -2.5, O/U 54.5

ABOUT THE GIANTS (12-7): New York has taken a path that is eerily similar to its Super Bowl run four years ago, shaking off a mediocre regular season to rattle off five consecutive victories that included beating the NFC’s top two seeds – Green Bay and San Francisco – on the road. Defense has sparked the turnaround for the Giants, who have surrendered only 39 points in three postseason victories while registering nine sacks and forcing seven turnovers. Manning threw for a career-high 4,933 yards with 29 touchdowns vs. only 16 interceptions in the regular season and has been steely efficient in the postseason with eight TDs and one pick. Manning threw for a league-high 15 fourth-quarter touchdowns in the regular season, including two in the victory over the Patriots. WRs Hakeem Nicks (4 TDs in the postseason), Victor Cruz (NFC-high 1,536 yards) and Mario Manningham (3 TDs in the postseason) give Manning plenty of weapons. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, who missed the regular-season meeting, rushed for 74 yards in the NFC title game. He’ll be complemented by bruiser Brandon Jacobs, who ran for 72 yards against the Patriots in November.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (15-3): Brady followed up a record-setting effort against Denver with one of his worst postseason performances in a 23-20 win over Baltimore in the AFC title game. He finished with 239 yards and was picked off twice while failing to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 17 of the 2009 season. Brady overcame a wobbly start to throw for 342 yards and two TD passes against New York in November, but eight of his completions and one TD went to Gronkowski, who has yet to practice since being injured. Gronkowski was the centerpiece of the Patriots’ high-powered offense, hauling in 90 receptions and setting league records for TDs (17) and receiving yards (1,327) by a tight end. Brady, who threw for 5,235 yards, 39 TDs and 12 interceptions, will join John Elway as the only quarterback to start five Super Bowls and can surpass Joe Montana (16) for the most postseason victories. WR Wes Welker had a league-high 122 catches, including nine for 136 yards against the Giants. The big question is whether New England’s much-maligned defense can stop Manning when it counts.

SUPER BOWL HISTORY

GIANTS (3-1): Def. Denver 39-20 (1986); def. Buffalo 20-19 (1990); lost to Baltimore 34-7 (2000); def. New England 17-14 (2007).

PATRIOTS (3-3): Lost to Chicago 46-10 (1985); lost to Green Bay 35-21 (1996); def. St. Louis 20-17 (2001); def. Carolina 32-29 (2003); def. Philadelphia 24-21 (2004); lost to N.Y. Giants (2007).

EXTRA POINTS: CLICK HERE for 500 Handicappers Package FOR 5$ 

1. Sunday’s game will mark the first time that both starting quarterbacks have been Super Bowl MVPs.

2. New York is the second team to advance to the Super Bowl (Arizona 2008) by beating three playoff opponents with better records.

3. The previous four Super Bowl appearances by New England, all coming in a seven-year span, were decided by three points.

4. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and New York’s Tom Coughlin each served on the same staff with the Giants under Bill Parcells.

5. In the Week 9 meeting, the Patriots and Giants played the first scoreless opening half of the season.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Patriots 23. A hobbled Gronkowski is too much to overcome for New England’s offense, particularly in the red zone, and New York makes it two Super Bowl wins in five seasons.

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